Evolution 2.0 by Martin Brinkworth & Friedel Weinert

Author:Martin Brinkworth & Friedel Weinert
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg

Conclusion

Probability considerations may shift the balance of credibility of theories; the evidence bestows credibility on one theory while at the same time discrediting its rivals. In the Origin of Species, Darwin uses comparative probability arguments, like IMF, rather than the method of falsifiability. The Darwinian inferences take the following form: The evolutionary theory confers more probability on the evidence than the rival creation theory. Hence, on Darwin’s account the creation theory should be eliminated because it fails to provide a mechanism, which renders the evidence probable.

We should finally consider how IMF is related to falsificationism. Critics of Popper’s falsificationism point out that the hypothetico-deductive scheme does not lead to the exclusion of rival theories, since one theory at a time faces the evidence. But this leaves open the possibility that there are alternative theories, which may either be equally well corroborated or even be in better agreement with experimental evidence than the theory under test. By contrast, IMF achieves a reduction of a set of rival accounts by letting principles and evidence either lower the probability of the rival theory or eliminate unsuccessful theories altogether ([20] pp. 1–6; [21], pp. 11–13). For instance, the simple fact of ‘being at location A at time t’ when a crime happened at location B at time t eliminates a whole raft of potential suspects. In the same way all theories based on the notion of Intelligent Design or creation are eliminated by Darwinian inferences. Popper was aware of this consequence of the falsification principle. Only when a limited number of theories is available does the critical method lead to the elimination of all unfit competitors, by the method of falsification. In the normal case, the number of competitors is large and the critical method cannot drive the elimination method to a point where only one ‘true’ competitor survives ([22], p. 16, cf. pp. 264–265; [23], pp. 107–108).

There exists thus a limit relation between IMF and Popper’s hypothetic-deductive model. When the set of alternative or rival theories can be regarded as very restricted, for instance on account of criteria like ‘simplicity’ and ‘coherence’, falsificationism may be regarded as a limit of the method of IMF. In the limit of a paucity of choice, for whatever reason, IMF goes over into falsificationism. But such situations are rare in the history of science, as Popper’s model of the growth of scientific knowledge would suggest. In the case of Darwinism there were, and there continue to be, a number of rivals and alternatives [24].

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